![]() ![]() Emissions are estimated from National Bureau of Statistics data on production of different fuels and cement, China Customs data on imports and exports and WIND Information data on changes in inventories, applying IPCC default emissions factors and annual emissions factors per tonne of cement production until 2018. Year-on-year change in China’s quarterly CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and cement, %. Changes for previous quarters are in blue, highlighting the impact of coronavirus lockdowns in the first quarter of 2020. This is shown by the red column in the chart, below. In the first quarter of 2021, China’s CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and cement production grew by 14.5%, relative to the same period a year earlier. If emissions in 2021 as a whole match the growth seen over the past 12 months, there would be little room for further increases to 2025, under the targets of China’s 14th five-year plan (14FYP). The CO2 surge reflects a rebound from coronavirus lockdowns in early 2020, but also a post-Covid economic recovery that has so far been dominated by growth in construction, steel and cement. The analysis is based on official figures for the domestic production, import and export of fossil fuels and cement, as well as commercial data on changes in stocks of stored fuel. This is some 600m tonnes (5%) above the total for 2019. ![]() The post-pandemic surge means China’s emissions reached a new record high of nearly 12bn tonnes (GtCO2) in the year ending March 2021. China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions have grown at their fastest pace in more than a decade, increasing by 15% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2021, new analysis for Carbon Brief shows. ![]()
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